Dunning-Kruger effect in the organization
When self-confidence runs ahead of competence
In today's organizations, decisions are being made faster than ever before. Digitalization, AI, sustainability requirements, regulatory changes, and new business models drive a constant need for transformation. At the same time, a psychological phenomenon arises that often remains invisible to management teams, despite the fact that it can be one of the biggest reasons for failed change initiatives: the Dunning-Kruger effect.
Begreppet beskriver människors tendens att överskatta sin egen knowledge inom ett område där de egentligen har begränsad erfarenhet. Ju mindre någon vet, desto svårare blir det att inse omfattningen av det som är okänt. Resultatet blir ofta ett högt självförtroende kombinerat med begränsad förståelse för komplexiteten. I en organisation kan detta skapa betydande utmaningar. En ledningsgrupp kan vara övertygad om att ett nytt IT-system kommer att lösa verksamhetens problem. En avdelning kan anse sig förstå hållbarhetsrapportering utan att inse de regulatoriska konsekvenserna. Ett projektteam kan starta ett AI-initiativ utan att förstå krav på datakvalitet, styrning eller förändringsledning. Problemet är sällan brist på ambition. Tvärtom. Människor vill bidra, förbättra och skapa resultat. Utmaningen uppstår när olika delar av organisationen arbetar utifrån sin egen begränsade verklighetsbild utan en gemensam orkestrering.
Here, the role of the Chief of Staff (CoS) becomes crucial. Just as a conductor does not play all the instruments themselves, the CoS is not responsible for being an expert in every area. The task is instead to ensure that the whole works, that the right competencies work together, and that the organization avoids making decisions based on overconfidence rather than facts. In an age when change has become permanent, the CoS is not just a coordinator. The role is that of the conductor who helps the organization hear the entire symphony, rather than falling in love with the sound of a single instrument.
Understanding what we don't know
The Greek philosopher Socrates is often attributed the quote:
”The only thing I know is that I know nothing.”
Trots att citatet är över två tusen år gammalt fångar det kärnan i Dunning-Kruger-effekten bättre än många moderna ledarskapsteorier. De mest framgångsrika organisationerna kännetecknas sällan av att deras ledare tror sig ha alla svar. Snarare präglas de av intellektuell ödmjukhet, nyfikenhet och en vilja att utmana sina egna antaganden. När människor inser gränserna för sin knowledge öppnas dörren för samarbete, lärande och bättre beslut. En CoS arbetar ofta i just detta gränsland mellan säkerhet och osäkerhet. Rollen handlar inte om att leverera alla lösningar utan om att skapa strukturer där organisationen kan ställa bättre frågor. När perspektiv från verksamhet, ekonomi, teknik, HR och hållbarhet samlas uppstår en kollektiv intelligens som enskilda funktioner sällan kan skapa på egen hand. I många fall är den största risken inte att organisationen saknar kompetens. Risken är att den tror att den redan har den. Först när organisationen accepterar att komplexa utmaningar kräver flera perspektiv kan verklig transformation ta fart. Precis som i en orkester är det inte den starkaste solisten som skapar stor musik. Det är samspelet mellan alla instrument som gör skillnaden.
The Dunning-Kruger effect and why organizations need a leader
The Dunning-Kruger effect becomes particularly dangerous in complex organizations because it rarely appears as an individual problem. Instead, it risks becoming an organizational trait. When different parts of the organization develop specialist expertise, naturally distinct perspectives emerge. The finance function looks at costs and investments. IT looks at systems and technology. HR looks at skills and culture. The business focuses on delivery and customer value. Each perspective is correct within its own area. The problem arises when one perspective begins to be viewed as the whole truth.
This is where many transformation initiatives go wrong. A common example is digitalization. The management decides to invest in new technology because they see the potential to streamline operations. The technology team focuses on implementation. The finance team focuses on budgeting. But no one owns the entire picture of change management, process development, and user adoption. The result is often a technically successful project that the business never fully utilizes. This is not a technology problem; it is an orchestration problem.
The same applies to sustainability issues. Many organizations view ESG as a reporting requirement. Thus, the issue falls to the finance department. Others see it as a communication initiative and place the responsibility with the marketing team. In reality, sustainability impacts strategy, risk management, procurement, HR, business development, and investments. When a function believes it can handle the entire issue alone, the very type of overestimation described by the Dunning-Kruger effect often arises.
A Chief of Staff serves as the organization's meta-perspective. The role not only looks at the content of the change initiatives but also the connections between them. Imagine a symphony orchestra. Each musician is skilled in their instrument. The string players are experts in their instruments. The brass players master their scores. The percussionists know exactly when to step in. But if each section plays perfectly without coordination, chaos still arises. The conductor has a unique role. He or she does not have to be the best at the violin, trumpet, or cello. However, the conductor must understand how each part contributes to the whole and ensure that everyone plays the same piece, at the same tempo and towards the same goal. In the same way, a CoS works.
When the management team sees a new AI opportunity, CoS helps identify implications for governance, information security, legal, talent development, and business processes. As sustainability requirements increase, CoS ensures that responsibility is not locked into a single function but integrated into the entire organization’s governance model. When multiple parallel projects compete for the same resources, CoS helps management prioritize based on strategic impact rather than functional interests. This reduces the risk of individual parts of the organization overestimating their understanding of the whole. Research in decision-making also shows that cross-functional perspectives generally lead to better decisions in complex environments. When different perspectives meet, the risk of groupthink, excessive self-confidence, and unilateral analysis is reduced. But cross-functionality does not emerge by itself. Someone has to create the forums. Someone has to make conflicts between priorities visible. Someone must ensure that perspectives are integrated before decisions are made.
This is where many management teams underestimate the value of a CoS. They see the role as an administrative coordinator when in fact it is a strategic orchestration function. As organizations become more complex, the need for someone who can connect strategy, implementation, and change management also increases. Otherwise, the organization risks suffering from a collective Dunning-Kruger effect where each function thinks it understands the whole while in reality no one actually does. When this happens, the failure is rarely dramatic. It occurs gradually through misprioritizations, duplication of effort, conflicting initiatives, and missed opportunities. Just as an orchestra slowly loses its tempo without anyone really understanding why.
From functional silos to a strategic symphony
Many organizations invest significant resources in strategy development, digitalization, and business development. Yet the expected impact often fails to materialize. The explanation rarely lies in a lack of expertise. Rather, it is a fragmented approach. When silos are reinforced and each function optimizes its own goals, the common rhythm is lost. The management team risks working harder without getting closer to its strategic ambitions. A CoS contributes by creating the shared holistic picture that enables the organization to coordinate change across functional boundaries. The role acts as the link between strategy and execution, between vision and everyday life. It is not control that is created. It is interaction. Just as the conductor helps the musicians to create something greater together than the sum of their individual efforts, CoS helps the organization’s various competencies work towards the same vision. And it is precisely in this interaction that the risks of the Dunning-Kruger effect begin to diminish.
Chief of Staff as conductor: The key to more accurate decisions
The Dunning-Kruger effect will never disappear. It is a natural part of human behavior and affects individuals, teams, and management groups in all types of organizations. What determines success is not whether the phenomenon exists, but how the organization handles it. Organizations that succeed best create mechanisms to challenge assumptions, gather diverse perspectives, and ensure that complex decisions are made with an understanding of the whole. Here, the Chief of Staff plays a central role. As the conductor in the organization’s change orchestra, the CoS helps the leadership detect blind spots before they become problems. The role highlights dependencies, coordinates initiatives, and ensures that strategic ambitions are translated into coordinated action. As AI, sustainability, digitalization, and change management become increasingly intertwined, it is no longer enough to be an expert in one’s own discipline. Success requires the ability to orchestrate the interplay between many competencies simultaneously. That is why the need for a Chief of Staff is growing. Not because the role is supposed to make all the decisions. But to ensure that the organization makes better decisions. And just as the best conductor is often the one who is least noticed, the most valuable CoS is often the one who makes the entire organization play in sync without the audience even thinking about who is keeping the tempo.
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